Furniture Industry Trend Forecast

Applying methods learned in the Global Design Futures unit

The future will be different than today and in consequence businesses and their design managers have to monitor trends to adapt their strategy in order to react to or shape the future.

In course of the Global Design Futures unit, I worked on a trend forecast for the furniture industry that I will share in this and the following posts.

Methodology

For this forecasting report a methodology based on the Double Diamond Model with the steps discover, define, develop and deliver has been applied (Design Council, 2019).

In the discovery stage, the environment of the furniture industry has been identified through secondary and primary research to be summarised in a STEEP analysis. First, information has been gathered through regular reading of industry news in specialised magazines like Dezeen and furniture company newsletters. Then, trend reports and books targeting macro shifts in today’s environment have been consulted. As primary research, design events have been visited to observe furniture trends presented by designers and manufacturers, including the Orgatec Furniture Fair in Cologne and the Clerkenwell Design Week in London. Furthermore, talks to future related topics have been visited to gather expert opinions and to engage in informal interviews after the talks, e.g. the talk ‘Where next?’ to the future of the furniture industry, ‘Panel Four: Can AI learn to be creative?’ and ‘AI and creativity: What makes us human?’ to emerging technologies in the creative industries.

All observed indicators have been organised in a trend overview according to macro shifts in the definition stage. This supported the choice of five trends for detailed analysis, which has been conducted in the development stage.

Through an interview, expert opinions on the five identified trends have been collected.

All gathered information have then been triangulated in the final stage of delivery, a focus analysis of the chosen trends. There, a conclusion for the furniture industry has been developed and also an appropriate presentation of the findings has been designed.

This report is not limited by geography, as trends e.g. concerning the target group of millennials, are not bound to regions, but the research has been based on mainly western sources which in result leads to a focus on developed economies.

The Furniture Industry

The furniture branch is a huge industry made up of the different sectors of domestic furniture for private households, office furniture and hotel/restaurant furniture in the B2B market (Mordor Intelligence, 2016).

Various changes in the environment of the furniture market, have led to significant changes in business models and solutions offered.

With millennials becoming the largest customer group for furniture purchases, e.g. already 37% of customers in the US market in 2014 (Weinswig, 2016), their attitudes and demands have a huge impact on the furniture industry and are one driver of many of the impactful trends.

The following STEEP analysis (PESTLE Analysis, 2015) shows a selection of changing drivers in the environment of the furniture industry.

This trend forecasting report will focus on three categories from the STEEP analysis. Based on numerous current indicators in the furniture branch it can be predicted that they will gain rising importance for all players in the industry in the next years:

• Customer Interaction

• Emerging Technology

• Sustainability

In the following posts each of the three driving categories will be introduced.

In accordance to the Trend Triangle (Healy, 2019) for each driver, first of all the macro shifts are summarised, then an overview of all trends within the category is presented. From these, in total 5 trends are analysed in detail.

For each there is a short explanation, main driver and target group analysis, the diffusion of innovation and 3 main indicators as well as the summary: What does this mean? for the players in the furniture industry.